Small Decisions

April 19, 2020

Forward:

All,

I know many of you also have friends, family, connections in other parts of the US (and world). I want to extend my thoughts and hope to everyone I have had the honor to know from coast to coast. Please stay safe and stay healthy. In times of uncertainty, the dividends paid by precaution are priceless.

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Small Decisions

Critical thinking, Deliberating, Hedges, Optimize, Cost-Benefit Analysis.

All describe the decision-making process. The modern business vernacular has been ingrained with these phrases that can be heard all across the office “The program’s O(n) is not optimized properly”, “How are we going to hedge marketing’s initial investment?”, “What is the cross-benefit of switching from one provider to another?”.

We use these words too loosely. An ‘Age of Decadence’ - coined by Douthat - refers to one that has become stagnant in its achievements. We have been motionless in success too long and forgot the actual pains of critical decision making. It is a luxury to make the decisions mentioned above. In times of hazard, we have no such luxury.

When faced with an unfathomable amount of uncertainty, decision making descends into a shadow that none of us have had adequate exposure towards. These situations call on decision-makers that will need to see fruits or failures of their choices burdened with a weight that can engulf any man or woman.

Given the severity of many measures, a decision to order a ‘shelter and stay’, lockdown, or even a mandatory WFH period will save lives. These choices may seem swift but require time to see the full fruition of the decision. During such a turbulent time, I wanted to extend unrelenting gratitude to Mayor Lucas and others of the Kansas City Community. Thank you for making a once-in-a-lifetime, early decision that led to time, lives, and resources saved.

These decisions are tough. In a world where everyone is a publisher (Statechery) the effects of the choices are magnified evermore. Communities residing in echo-chambers seem to only add more noise. Meanwhile -- groups of Scientists, Academics, and Whistleblowers have provided insight from the front lines warning the world. While lives are being saved in the short-run, we have now been presented with ranges of new decisions to face habitually. These decisions are no longer luxuries, rather they reflect robustness and fragility (Taleb) in ourselves and those closest to us. Now the choices we make, in aggregate, can handicap those closest to us in ways we never imagined.

Hope is believing that in the initiating decision-making process lie inklings of other choices on how to further safety and health. Since others had to dwell on the weight of shutting down cities to save us time, it is our job to do our most with this time. Consumers have adapted. Masks in public will become as apparent as jewelry. Some of the most established companies are changing their infrastructure within weeks. Change is already here and it is up to us to make the most pertinent decisions with the time we so graciously have.

Testing, Tracing, Testing, Tracing, …

The equilibrium necessary for long term success. These are the goals of the efforts we as a community need to make. All of our cumulative actions can create an environment that can defeat the virus and prepare use better for the future (recommendations at NECSI). Then maybe, just maybe, we can all go back to making smaller decisions. Decisions that do not involve complicated epidemiology and risk. Decisions that involve us being able to surprise our parents after work. Decisions like should I get coffee? What should I even wear?...

Jeans or Slacks?

..

.

Sweatpants.


Best,

Noah B Marsh
Entrepreneur | Researcher | Craftsman

BSBA Marketing Research | Minors Data Analytics & Spanish