Unprecedented short-term calamity.
Black Swan, Gray Rhino, choose your animal kingdom representation of entropy. The corollary effect of all representations are their oversized influence on physical, social, and cultural institutions (see 'Death of the Handshake').
As institutions experience strain on their system (flattening the curve), this oversized effect can create the gravity to alter course of said institutions (workings of Acemoglu and Taleb).Insights and perspectives on institutions have been written, digested, and spit out for decades. Since the 1980s, the Hofstede cultural dimensions has been a keystone for many social scientists to evaluate and measure these abstract systems. There are many interpretations of the cultural dimensions measured. These perspectives can be contrarian - like the unorthodox, Peter Thiel (see ‘Zero to One’). They can also be used to extrapolate social narratives seen in many of Malcom Gladwell's work ('Outliers')and other authors on the subject.
My question lies in measuring the trend of said cataclysmic event (global pandemic) and to use it as a flashbulb test. Think of if you ever had to ask your parents or grandparents where they were when JFK was assassinated? the Challenger exploding? 9/11?
The Covid19 pandemic is on track to create a massive crater in how society values each other. Let us skip the whole preventative vs. reactionary debate, hindsight is always 20/20 and of course we need to test all of the United States. I would like to focus on the ramifications of this event on the human and global populous moving forward.
I will be monitoring global developments to the best of my ability, but would also like anyone to reach out interested in replicating Hofstede's experiment/analysis in the following 6 months. Using this information, we could then confer to see if global sentiment is converging, or to Thiel's point, diverging. My hypothesis is that we will see many non-authoritarian regimes continue to converge on values and positions. Perhaps this may lead to a decrease in individualism in the United States as we slowly start considering our place within the world rather than leading the world.
Other developments I will be considering (aside from social sentiment) would be how will this affect businesses – shocker. Clearly there are now issues withcentralized global supply chains (see rise of bitcoin and other decentralized/localized methodology). Everything from manufacturing, chemical, pharmaceuticals, and everything in-between. Is it within Fortune 100/Blue Chip Companies longterm interest to distribute their global operations amongst most G7 countries?
These are a fraction of the questions, concerns, and speculations that an event such as Covid19 can cause. My questions above take into the assumption that the world will be willing to work together after a tragic shock to our global institutions and community. We very well could enter a ‘long winter’ of cold interactions between all countries that will lead to more isolation and less interaction. This is a speculators paradise and if you can manage to find any foothold of ‘skin in the game’ be it investments, making content for people to consume from home*, etc. – double down on it.
Has this musing allowed you to think more abstractly? Hopefully expanded your risk tolerance as well. Being a new college graduate in an environment like this is exhausting. There were generations before us that lived through a pandemic that swept across the country just like the pioneers did. Now our generation has to weather a similar fate. This will produce tragedy, fear, and innovation. I certainly hope that looking at consequential events and leveraging massive shocks to institutions and systems can definitely benefit those with a flexible perspective.
Everyone, please stay safe, educated, and care for those that can be affect.While it is not on the list of the cultural dimensions of the Hofstede analysis,I certainly believe the trajectory and success of a complex species relies on sympathy and caring for the elders. While many others are effected by the virus, it seems that those who instill the most comfort and light in dark, trying times are those most affected. Ensure your loved ones are safe, continue to remain open to certain events that may take place, and adapt to new environments to leverage changes to dynamic systems of entropy.
Thank you for your time, as always, reach out for anything.
*What is a speculation worth if you do not have skin in the game?
Best,
BSBA Marketing Research | Minors Data Analytics & Spanish